German Foreign Minister Kriegbaum stated at the EU meeting (source) that the patience of EU member states toward Hungary is wearing thin due to ongoing rule-of-law violations, and more and more countries are considering further steps:

“But we also have to say that all patience has its limits.”

The procedure to suspend Hungary’s voting rights under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union was initiated back in 2018. However, the German government had remained cautious, fearing that such a move could set a precedent for destabilizing the bloc.

At the time, Poland — another habitual violator of EU cohesion — shielded Orbán, as it had no interest in creating such a precedent.

But over the past year, the situation has changed:

A change of government in Poland in 2024 has stripped Hungary of a key protective ally.
A change of leadership in Germany brought in a new government that appears to have definitively abandoned its passive stance. Their coalition agreement explicitly commits to “punishing violators of EU unity.”

The process of revoking voting rights under Article 7 involves four stages, two of which have already been completed:

Stage 1 (Preliminary): An expert opinion is requested. The European Parliament initiates an inquiry to determine if core EU values are being violated.
Stage 2 (Initiation): The European Parliament votes to support the findings. This has already been done.
Stage 3 (Approval): The European Council must unanimously (excluding the violating country) agree to proceed with sanctions. From 2018 until 2024, Poland blocked this step. Now Poland is no longer doing so — but Slovakia has taken its place as a new blocker. As of now, the process is stuck at this stage.
Stage 4 (Sanctions): The Council of the EU imposes sanctions by qualified majority (at least 15 of 27 countries representing 65% of the EU population).

But Stage 3 remains the bottleneck due to the unanimity requirement.

Merz’s Flank Attack on Orbán

Orbán is now shielded by a politically weaker ally than Poland — Slovakia. Merz threatened to initiate funding restrictions on Slovakia (source):

“We cannot avoid this conflict with Hungary and Slovakia if we continue on the same path. We cannot allow decisions for the entire EU to depend on a small minority.”

This kind of financial pressure doesn’t require unanimity, and with Slovakia facing budgetary strain, EU funding cuts could be catastrophic for Fico’s already fragile government.

Trying not to lose face with his voters, Fico responded cautiously:

“If we don’t comply, what then — punishment? That’s not the way to unity and cooperation. I hope we can clarify the matter, because this style of communication is counterproductive.”

But the very fact that Merz openly called out not just Orbán but also his “accomplices” signals a warning — primarily aimed at Fico.

It’s unclear whether Merz’s move is just pressure ahead of an EU summit vote or part of a strategic effort to isolate Slovakia and secure the unanimity required for Stage 3 of the Article 7 procedure against Hungary. Time will tell.

Polish Elections and the Hungary Question

Polish politics also play a key role in the broader context of EU action against Hungary.
Tusk has repeatedly hinted at a willingness to "punish Orbán," and should Trzaskowski (his ally) prevail, he is expected to follow that party line.

But if Nawrocki (PiS) wins, things might change. He signed a declaration with Męcen (from Confederation), which includes the statement:

“I will not ratify any new EU treaties that weaken Poland’s role — for example, by reducing its voting power or removing its veto rights.”

This clause can be interpreted as a refusal to support any precedent of revoking a country’s voting rights — meaning he would likely oppose action against Hungary as well.

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